How It Works
The quick guide on how to use ArtTactic Forecaster
Before you can join the competition,
please register your details
including your player alias (this is your public player identity). Please also state your preferences for how we keep you updated about upcoming quizzes, your score and player ranking.
Pick an auction quiz
Browse our upcoming quizzes through
Each quiz has 5 lots which you have to predict what you think it will sell for (hammer price without buyer's premium). Use the 'slider' to indicate which price bracket you think it will sell for. If you think it won't sell, choose the default 'No sale' option. You will be rewarded for participation, but your score will be affected negatively if you are inactive. We can send you reminders about upcoming quizzes and quizzes that are about to end.
RESULTS, SKILL SCORES & RANKINGS
Your performance and results can be monitored through the
As you can see below, there are different scores and rankings in Artforecaster.
Competition Leagues & Ranking
Every quiz on the Artforecaster belongs to a curated competition often linked to a collecting segment (photography, prints, works on paper, or an auction category such as Asian Contemporary art. Your results in these competitions contribute to your Competition Rank as well as your Seasonal Rank (season runs from May to May). There are two Leagues: a) Rookie League (this is for players with Skill Level below ‘Art Market Analyst’) and Expert League for players with skill level of Art Market Analyst or above (for more on skill levels and skill scores see below)
Skill Scores and Ranking
You might be wondering what the ‘skill scores’ mean and how they are calculated, we won't bore you with the details, but in short it does the following:
- The aim of the forecaster ‘skill score’ is to provide a measurement of the forecasting skill of each player, which is loosely related to the probability which we might assign to the player making a correct prediction. Like a probability, the score has a minimum possible value (0) and a maximum (100) and the actual level will fluctuate within this range over time as players make more forecasts. As a very rough guide, a player who consistently forecasts every price correctly will end up with a score approaching 100 and a player who consistently answers every question incorrectly will end up with a score approaching zero.
- The scoring system assumes that players' performance may tend to be erratic over time, e.g. it is possible to get very lucky (or unlucky) on one or more lots which does not truly reflect long-term forecasting ability, therefore the scoring calculations also incorporate a smoothing adjustment which aims to make sure that your score is not dramatically influenced by temporary "spikes" in performance.
- Finally a further important feature is that the system weights recent performance relatively highly, and if a player does not participate for one or more quizzes then the system will tend to decrease its confidence in the player's ability (and tend to reduce the player's score slightly). Therefore it is inadvisable for skilled players to stop playing and "rest on their laurels", since their score is not set in stone.
Artforecaster offers unique access to live forecasts and analytics for lots coming up at international auctions. See how your predictions compare to others and how confident the crowd are in the pre-sale estimates. These forecasts are dynamic and will change as more people add their predictions, so make sure you come back regularly and check for updates.
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As your overall fine art score improves you will pass different skill levels. These are:
overall fine art score above 10
Each of these skill levels will entitle you to specific privileges, e.g. access to free Art Market Reports (overall fine art score above 40).
Tools and Resources
To help you improve your forecasts we have created a few simple tools that we believe are useful. For some of the quizzes we will provide you with previous auction records of similar lots (comparable transactions). You will also have access to previous quiz results for the artist. As the game evolves, we will start introducing tools and resources to help you improve your performance and ranking.
Spotted somebody that is making rapid progress or are just ahead of you in the ranking? Press the ‘Follow’ button on their profile page and you can track how they are doing vis-a-vis yourself. You can follow up to 6 other players.
Did you set a new record score or achieve a higher ranking? Make sure you share the good news with your friends and colleagues through Twitter or Facebook.
Please don’t hesitate to contact us if you have any questions.